What happened. On 14 May in the Great Hall of the People, the two leaders unveiled a “constructive China–U.S. relationship of strategic stability” framework set to guide ties for the next three years. The U.S. deliverable list keeps rare earths flowing, stands up a bilateral trade board for non-sensitive sectors, and locks in fresh Chinese purchase commitments on soybeans, aircraft and energy. Trump said Xi pledged Beijing will not supply Iran with military equipment; Xi countered with an offer to lift U.S. oil imports to hedge China’s Strait of Hormuz exposure. Tariffs remain paused. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang travelled with the delegation — tech access is on the table.
Why it matters. Three premia compress simultaneously for globally-oriented Chinese firms: secondary-sanctions risk, supply-chain bifurcation cost, and outbound capital-flow uncertainty. The Nasdaq’s +1.2% close at 26,402 reflects the AI-chip channel re-opening; Brent’s $3 give-back signals a softer geopolitical risk premium; CNH at 6.78 — multi-year highs — opens a low-cost offshore USD funding window for Chinese issuers.
The catch. Taiwan was not in the U.S. readout. Xi explicitly warned of “great jeopardy” if mishandled — the one trigger that can collapse this framework inside 90 days. Treat the truce as conditional, not consummated.
