Standard Risk Global articles related to Energy.
The revised US Russia sanctions bill—scaling from a blanket 500% tariff to a targeted 100% duty on five top Russian crude buyers—reintroduces coercive trade policy with narrowed blast radius. Combine…
Physical crude markets are running nearly $90/bbl above J.P. Morgan's 2026 Brent forecast of $60/bbl, with IEA data showing North Sea Dated averaging $120.36/bbl in April 2026 after a $16.50/bbl mont…
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has reignited energy-driven inflation across G7 economies, forcing a dramatic repricing of the global rate path. The ECB projects Eurozone headline inflation at 3.0% f…
The US temporarily lifted some sanctions on Iranian oil at sea, releasing approximately 140 million barrels of crude into a tight global market. The move, paired with a 60-day interim accord for nucl…
The U.S.-Iran preliminary memorandum has opened a path to clear the 1,500 ships stranded at the Strait of Hormuz, yet oil prices are set for an 8-week stabilization period that will test global suppl…
The G7-brokered U.S.-Iran memorandum unlocks a 60-day nuclear negotiation window, extends a ceasefire, and creates a $300 billion reconstruction fund. The immediate market inflection is the expected …
The US-Iran peace deal’s immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reverses the conflict’s most acute energy chokepoint, potentially returning roughly 11 million barrels per day of offline crude su…
Energy, FX, shipping, and sanctions exposure are converging into one transmission channel across Asian balance sheets.
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate 25bp to 2.25% on Thursday - its first hike since 2023 - choosing to fight energy-driven inflation even as it cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.8%…
U.S. headline inflation surged to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven almost entirely by a Gulf-war energy spike rather than domestic demand. The print buried hopes of 2026 Federal Reserve easin…
The May U.S. consumer price index, due at 8:30 a.m. ET today, is set to print near 4.2% year-on-year — up from 3.8% in April and the highest since 2023 — confirming that the Iran war’s energy shock h…
Sixty-four days after the April 7 ceasefire, the financial economy and the physical economy are telling opposite stories. Brent has surrendered roughly half its war premium, gold has corrected ~26% from its January peak, and the VIX trades near 19 — markets, in aggregate, are pricing peace. Yet the Strait of Hormuz moves 5–10% of its pre-war traffic, war-risk insurance costs 3–8x its February baseline, Asian spot LNG runs ~70% above January, and supertanker freight is double last year. For Asian enterprises, the...
The decisive force in markets is no longer the Fed - it is a barrel of crude. Israel and Iran traded missile strikes on the 100th day of war, holding Brent at $94.25 and the Strait of Hormuz near-s…
Brent crude has slid to roughly $98 from its $126 March peak even as the Strait of Hormuz enters its 94th day choked to a tenth of normal traffic - the market is now pricing a reopening Tehran has …
Iran's suspension of US talks and threat to fully close the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent up more than 4% to open June, near $95 after a $126 four-year peak in April. The supply shock has dragged eur…
Global markets have split in two. U.S. equities closed at fresh records on June 1 — the S&P 500 at 7,599.96, the Nasdaq above 27,000 for the first time — wagering on a swift end to the Iran war. Yet …
Iran's de-escalation erased 2026's geopolitical risk premium in a single month. A 60-day memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent down 19% in May — its worst month since the COVID crash …
Brent crude settled at $92.05 on Friday, capping a roughly 18% May collapse - its steepest monthly fall since the 2020 pandemic - after US and Iranian negotiators agreed a 60-day memorandum to ex…
Iran's pledge to restore full Strait of Hormuz traffic within a month of a deal sent WTI crude down 6% to $88.3 on 27 May, dragging the 30-year Treasury yield off its 5.20% near-19-year high to 5.02%…
U.S. self-defense strikes in southern Iran on May 26 lifted Brent crude 3% to $99.58/bbl while the S&P 500 ( 7,519.12 ) and Nasdaq ( 26,656.18 ) closed at fresh record highs on Trump's claim that tal…
The downgrade is unusually large. A 30bp cut to growth alongside a 110bp lift to inflation in a single forecast cycle is the steepest stagflationary revision Brussels has published since the 2022 gas…
President Trump posted on Saturday that final details of a war-ending Iran package — reopening Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade — are "currently being discussed." Iranian negotiators say the …
Iran is reviewing Washington's latest framework — Trump declared talks "in the final stages" — yet shipping disruption remains acute. CENTCOM has turned away 94 vessels through May 22, UANI is tracki…
Iran's Supreme Leader has killed the quick-deal narrative, locking Brent above $100 for the foreseeable future. For Chinese firms going global, this is no longer a transient shock — it is a new struc…
Brent slid to $107 and WTI broke below $100 on Trump's "final stages" remark — yet the IEA's May report says commercial stocks drew a record 246 million barrels in March-April, leaving "only weeks" b…
The US 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.20% on Tuesday — its highest since 2007 — and the 10-year at 4.68% , a 16-month peak. The move is not about Fed expectations; it is the term premium reassert…
The Putin–Xi summit lands at the 25th anniversary of the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and is set to produce a joint statement plus a slate of intergovernmental agreements, with Premier Li Qian…
Friday's tape told the real story: the Trump–Xi summit's "fantastic" tariff truce calmed the worst-case, yet Brent at $109.26 and the 10-year Treasury at 4.59% drove an "everything-down-except-oil" s…
The first sitting U.S. president to visit Beijing in nearly a decade produced more than optics: Trump and Xi formalised a three-year "strategic stability" framework with concrete deliverables on rare…
Brent crude jumped 3% to settle at $104.21/bbl on May 11 as the US-Iran ceasefire frayed and the Strait of Hormuz entered its eleventh week of partial closure. The IEA estimates 14 million barrels pe…
Trump touches down in Beijing Thursday for the first US presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. Markets are pricing his arrival as a non-event: the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,398.93 Friday …
The offshore yuan rallied to 6.79 per dollar on Friday — its strongest since February 2023 and a fourth straight session of gains — as global capital prices in a constructive Trump-Xi summit on May 1…
A 14-point US-Iran one-page memorandum reported by Axios on May 6 priced out 70 days of war-risk premium in a single session: WTI fell 6.9% to $95.19, Brent broke below $101, the S&P 500 closed at a …
A four-week-old US–Iran ceasefire fractured Monday after Iranian missiles struck the United Arab Emirates and US forces sank Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped 6.0% to $114.4…
The Iran war's two-month chokehold on Hormuz has cut Chinese crude transit through the strait by 95% to 222,000 b/d, from 4.45 million b/d before the conflict, even as Brent printed a wartime high of…
The ECB held the deposit rate at 2.00% as eurozone April CPI jumped to 3.0% and Q1 GDP stalled at +0.1% — textbook stagflation. Brent briefly hit a four-year high of $126.41/bbl before settling at $1…
The Fed will hold at 3.50–3.75% today — its third consecutive pause and almost certainly Jerome Powell's final FOMC. Markets price the hold at ~100% probability . The setup is unambiguous: with Brent…
Brent crude closed Monday at $106/bbl , roughly $25 above the pre-war Q1 baseline of $81 , despite a US–Iran ceasefire now in its third week. With Hormuz traffic still running at under 10% of the pre…
The U.S.–Iran ceasefire was extended indefinitely on 21 April but the Strait remains effectively closed. Iran's IRGC seized two more commercial vessels mid-week; the U.S. Navy continued interdicting …
Trump extended the two-week truce ahead of its 22 April expiry at Pakistan's request, but Iran continues to seize commercial vessels while the US Navy maintains its blockade. The IEA has called the e…
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire passed its expiry Tuesday night without a permanent deal, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for a 56th day and Brent crude at $98.48 , up 3.0% on the session. Fo…
The two-week US-Iran ceasefire expires today with no successor deal, locking a $20/bbl geopolitical premium into Brent (closed yesterday at $95.42, +5.6% d/d). For Chinese exporters and SOE energy bu…
Global markets enter a 48-hour binary event. Friday's euphoria — S&P 500 at a record 7,126.06, Brent down 9% to $90.38 — priced an Iran ceasefire that unraveled on Saturday when Tehran re-closed the …
Iran's Revolutionary Guard reclosed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic on Saturday, undoing a Friday reopening that had triggered a 9.07% Brent crude plunge to $90.38. The whipsaw — driven by…
The Strait of Hormuz reopened to commercial traffic on Friday, triggering the most violent single-session unwind of geopolitical risk premium in six weeks. Brent collapsed 10.7% to $88.73, the S&P 50…
The US–Iran truce expires around April 22, yet the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,041.28 on April 16, the Nasdaq ran its 12th straight session of gains — the longest streak since 2009 — and Brent settl…
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 7,022.95 on April 15, even as the IEA's April Oil Market Report confirmed global supply has fallen 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d — the largest disruption ever recorde…
Brent crude tumbled to $94.79/bbl as Washington signalled fresh negotiations with Tehran, retracing half the war-risk premium in 72 hours. For Chinese refiners and downstream chemicals — the world's …
A US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, ordered after weekend talks in Islamabad collapsed, pushed Brent back to $101.82/bbl (+6.95%) and WTI above $105 (+9.3% intraday). US equities rallied anyw…
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Iran's reported plan to levy a $1-per-barrel crypto toll on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with Trump's Friday ultimatum, has re-priced the Middle East risk premium into every Chine…
The bottom line: A Saturday US–Iran negotiation round in Islamabad has knocked Brent down more than 10% on the week to 6.51, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. For Chinese and Asia-…
The March CPI report released this morning confirmed what markets feared: the Iran-related energy shock has broken the disinflation trend. Core CPI surged to 3.1% year-over-year — a 12-month high — w…
The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced Tuesday night triggered the sharpest single-day oil decline since 2020, with WTI crude plunging 14.9% to $96.14/bbl and Brent falling 13.8% to $94.16/bbl. Glo…
President Trump's last-minute offer to suspend military operations against Iran for two weeks - conditional on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz - sent crude oil plunging 8% on April 7, erasi…
President Trump's 8:00 PM ET deadline for Iran to unconditionally reopen the Strait of Hormuz creates the most consequential binary risk event of 2026. Brent crude closed at $112 on April 3, up 44% s…
The Strait of Hormuz crisis enters its most critical phase this week. Oil executives and analysts warn that the strait must reopen by approximately April 19 or supply disruptions — currently estimate…
Iran's selective reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to five allied nations — including China — is fracturing global oil markets into a two-tier system, with Brent crude at $112.42/bbl as of April 3. T…
Brent surges past $112 on renewed supply fears while gold drops 2.7% on hawkish dollar; mid-April inflection point will determine whether $130+ oil becomes the new baseline
A diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran on March 31 sent Brent crude tumbling from $113 to $101 per barrel, erasing one-third of the war premium accumulated since late February. The S&P 500…
The Strait of Hormuz crisis enters its most dangerous phase this week, with oil executives and analysts warning that disrupted supply — already at 4.5–5 million barrels per day — could double by mid-…
The largest oil supply disruption in modern history closes out Q1 2026 with Brent at $112.78/bbl—up 63% in March alone—as the Strait of Hormuz blockade removes 10 million barrels per day from global …
Brent crude settled at $112.57 per barrel on Friday, capping a 54% surge since the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping on March 2 — the largest monthly oil price increase in market history…
China launched two formal trade investigations into US practices on Friday, targeting American tech export controls and green energy barriers - a direct retaliation against Trump's Section 301 probes…
What Simultaneous Conflicts in the Middle East, South Asia, and the Levant Mean for Asian Risk Calculus In the span of seven days—from February 28 to March 6, 2026—three previously distinct geopolitical crises converged into simultaneous kinetic conflict. Iran's nuclear escalation triggered US-Israel coordinated strikes. Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon accelerated. Pakistan launched massive airstrike operations against Afghanistan. The result: a systemic shock to global markets, energy flows, supply chains...
The most consequential US-China bilateral meeting in a decade begins March 31 in Beijing, with markets pricing modest expectations but underestimating tail risks on both sides. The S&P 500 fell 1.74%…
The Trump-Xi summit beginning March 31 in Beijing — the first US presidential visit to China since 2017 — arrives five days from now against a fundamentally reshaped trade backdrop. The US Supreme Co…
Trump's announcement of "productive" US-Iran talks triggered a historic risk-on rotation on March 23, sending Brent crude down 10.9% to $99.94/bbl and the Dow up 631 points. The halt of strikes on Ir…
President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on March 22 threatening to strike Iran's power grid unless Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude to 12 per barrel and triggering a …
The postponement of the Trump-Xi summit - originally scheduled for March 31-April 2 - has eliminated the most credible near-term catalyst for US-China tariff de-escalation, while Brent crude at 07.2/…
Gold is experiencing a paradox: the sharpest correction since early 2023 is occurring precisely when the structural case for gold is strongest. The 17% drawdown from the all-time high of $5,589 (January 28, 2026) to $4,660 (March 20) is being driven by three cyclical forces — a stronger dollar from the oil shock, a hawkish Fed pivot from two expected cuts to one, and forced liquidation of leveraged long positions. None of these forces invalidate the decade-long structural bid from central bank de-dollarisation...
The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average on Friday for the first time since October 2023, closing at 6,606 (−1.5%), as the convergence of the Fed’s rate hold at 3.50–3.75% and Brent crude a…
Iran's March 18 strikes on Qatar's LNG facilities and Saudi and UAE oil infrastructure sent Brent crude surging to an intraday high of $119/bbl on March 19 before settling at $108.65 - still 49% ab…
Four major central banks convene within 48 hours of each other while Brent crude holds above $100/bbl — a rare convergence that is repricing risk assets globally and forcing Chinese corporates to rec…
This report analyses the conflict's implications across three dimensions that matter for companies operating across borders: energy price trajectories under multiple scenarios, macroeconomic transmission channels across importing and exporting economies, and the specific impact on Asian cross-border investment in the Middle East and beyond. The core finding is a resilience shock disguised as an energy shock: Asia's energy-dependent manufacturing base faces a structural inflection point. Net energy exporters—the...
Selective tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz drove a relief rally across global risk assets on March 17, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.3% to 6,696 and Brent crude easing to ~$104 from a peak of…
Brent crude closed at $103.14 on Friday - up 38% in two weeks - as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz enters its third week, coinciding with this week's Federal Reserve meeting and live US-China …
Brent crude closed at $103.14 on Friday - its second consecutive session above $100 - as Iran's vow to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut enters its ninth day, disrupting 20% of global oil supply. The S&…
The US-Iran war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz for ten consecutive days, sending Brent crude above $100/bbl and the S&P 500 to its 2026 low of 6,673. With 20% of global oil transit block…
Iran's refusal of the G7 ceasefire and confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz remains mined pushed Brent crude to $99.35/bbl on March 12 - up 32% in ten trading days - while the S&P 500 fell 1.52% to…
Brent crude plunged 11.3% to $87.80 on March 10 after President Trump signaled the Iran conflict would end "very soon," reversing a 40% surge that had pushed prices above $110 just 48 hours earlier. …
Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz - the chokepoint for 21 million barrels per day and 45-50% of China's crude imports - has sent Brent crude surging 50% since US-Israel strikes began o…
Brent crude futures surged to $110 per barrel on Monday, up 52% from pre-crisis levels of $72.50, as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz entered its second week with no diplomatic resolution…
The Strait of Hormuz closure enters its second week with Brent crude sustaining above $92/bbl, WTI near $90, and no diplomatic off-ramp in sight. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has deployed additional mi…
Brent crude closed the week at $92.69/bbl — a 35% weekly gain, the largest in recorded history — as the Iran-Hormuz crisis reshaped global commodity markets. The S&P 500 ended the week at 6,740.02 (−…
The S&P 500 fell to 6,740.02 — its lowest close of 2026 — as a toxic combination of surging oil prices and deteriorating US labour data crystallised stagflation fears. The Dow dropped to 47,501.55, t…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 784 points to close at 47,954.74 — its worst single-day loss of 2026 — after Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared an "indefinite closure" of the …
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury. Iran retaliated with over 500 missiles and 2,000 drones, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Tanker traffic dropped to near-zero within 72 hours. This single chokepoint handles 20.9 million barrels per day — one-fifth of global oil consumption. Combined with the ongoing Red Sea disruption from Houthi attacks, nearly 30% of global seaborne oil trade is now transiting through disrupted or...
The United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, conducting over 1,700 precision strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and leadership compounds…
The S&P 500 finished February down 0.8%, but the headline index masked the most dramatic sector rotation since 2022. Utilities surged 10.2% and Energy gained 9.4%, while Technology — the market's eng…
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