Standard Risk Global articles related to FX.
The Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran since February 28, 2026, has triggered an oil supply shock redrawing Asian energy alliances and intensifying global inflation. The Bank of Japan lifted its polic…
The 2026 Strait of Hormuz disruption exposes a structural fault line: Japan sources 87% and South Korea 81% of total energy from fossil fuel imports routed overwhelmingly through the chokepoint. This…
President Trump has imposed a 50% additional duty on $20 billion of Canadian electronics, machinery, dairy and auto imports under Section 338, effective August 19. The move, triggered by three procla…
The United States imposed an additional 50% tariff on select Canadian goods via three Section 338 proclamations on July 20, targeting hockey sticks, wine, cement, dairy, and alcohol. The move bypasse…
Physical crude markets are running nearly $90/bbl above J.P. Morgan's 2026 Brent forecast of $60/bbl, with IEA data showing North Sea Dated averaging $120.36/bbl in April 2026 after a $16.50/bbl mont…
Japan’s 40-year government bond yield breached 4% and the 10-year JGB yield hit a 29-year high of 2.80%, triggering a reassessment of Japan’s risk-free rate anchor. The yen simultaneously traded near…
Failure to renew USMCA by its sunset clause would immediately subject auto imports from Canada and Mexico to 25% Section 232 tariffs, up from current zero rates. This reversion would apply not only t…
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has reignited energy-driven inflation across G7 economies, forcing a dramatic repricing of the global rate path. The ECB projects Eurozone headline inflation at 3.0% f…
Japan's pivot to 'ambush' yen intervention tactics, paired with hawkish BOJ rhetoric, has reset the global carry-trade risk premium, with Rabobank's three-month USD/JPY forecast pinned at 159 as of e…
Hawkish Fed repricing has driven the EUR:USD two-year swap-rate gap back close to pre-war levels, re-anchoring the cost differential between euro and dollar funding. The USD/JPY yield-differential li…
The Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade Agreement enters force on 1 July 2026, imposing a 15% US tariff on almost all EU goods. The agreement applies the higher of either the Most Favored Nation rat…
USDJPY is testing the 162 breakout level as Fed-BOJ divergence hardens, with Morgan Stanley estimating $500bn in outstanding yen carry positions after the August 2024 partial unwind. The Bank of Japa…
Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to 1% on June 16, the highest level since 1995, and the 10-year JGB yield jumped 3bps to 2.615% on the decision. USDJPY is now testing a breakout above 162 on Fed…
Gold spot fell below $4,000/oz for the first time since November, as the US dollar’s rally and rising real yields crushed the non-yielding asset. The breach of this psychological level, confirmed in …
The Federal Reserve’s June hold at 3.50–3.75% is anything but neutral; it cements a hawkish macro regime as markets price in further tightening. The U.S. 10-year yield near 4.5% and a surging dollar …
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold its key rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, coupled with a US-Iran 60-day ceasefire extension, sets the stage for a prolonged period of elevated dollar and tight …
The G7-brokered U.S.-Iran memorandum unlocks a 60-day nuclear negotiation window, extends a ceasefire, and creates a $300 billion reconstruction fund. The immediate market inflection is the expected …
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50–3.75% on June 16, but scrapped its easing bias and lifted the dot plot median to 3.8%, signaling a 25bp hike. The dollar surged, sending GBP/USD down nearly 1% …
Energy, FX, shipping, and sanctions exposure are converging into one transmission channel across Asian balance sheets.
The May 2026 U.S. Producer Price Index surged 6.5% year-over-year, with a sharp 1.1% month-over-month jump, while consumer inflation rose to 4.2%—the highest in three years. The scale of cost-push in…
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate 25bp to 2.25% on Thursday - its first hike since 2023 - choosing to fight energy-driven inflation even as it cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.8%…
U.S. headline inflation surged to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven almost entirely by a Gulf-war energy spike rather than domestic demand. The print buried hopes of 2026 Federal Reserve easin…
The decisive force in markets is no longer the Fed - it is a barrel of crude. Israel and Iran traded missile strikes on the 100th day of war, holding Brent at $94.25 and the Strait of Hormuz near-s…
Friday's $1.3 trillion wipeout in U.S. chip stocks was a verdict on valuation, not demand. Broadcom reported AI revenue up 143% to $10.8 billion and a $73 billion backlog - yet its shares fell and …
Iran's June 1 vow to "completely" seal the Strait of Hormuz has re-embedded a ~$35/bbl war premium in Brent crude - now ~$96.5, down from April's $126 spike - and driven gold to a record ~$4,480/…
Brent crude has slid to roughly $98 from its $126 March peak even as the Strait of Hormuz enters its 94th day choked to a tenth of normal traffic - the market is now pricing a reopening Tehran has …
Iran's suspension of US talks and threat to fully close the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent up more than 4% to open June, near $95 after a $126 four-year peak in April. The supply shock has dragged eur…
Brent crude settled at $92.05 on Friday, capping a roughly 18% May collapse - its steepest monthly fall since the 2020 pandemic - after US and Iranian negotiators agreed a 60-day memorandum to ex…
Headline PCE jumped to 3.8% in April — the highest reading since May 2023 — handing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh a hawkish opening hand. CME futures now place a 40% probability on a December rate hike ,…
Iran's pledge to restore full Strait of Hormuz traffic within a month of a deal sent WTI crude down 6% to $88.3 on 27 May, dragging the 30-year Treasury yield off its 5.20% near-19-year high to 5.02%…
U.S. self-defense strikes in southern Iran on May 26 lifted Brent crude 3% to $99.58/bbl while the S&P 500 ( 7,519.12 ) and Nasdaq ( 26,656.18 ) closed at fresh record highs on Trump's claim that tal…
The downgrade is unusually large. A 30bp cut to growth alongside a 110bp lift to inflation in a single forecast cycle is the steepest stagflationary revision Brussels has published since the 2022 gas…
President Trump posted on Saturday that final details of a war-ending Iran package — reopening Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade — are "currently being discussed." Iranian negotiators say the …
Iran is reviewing Washington's latest framework — Trump declared talks "in the final stages" — yet shipping disruption remains acute. CENTCOM has turned away 94 vessels through May 22, UANI is tracki…
Iran's Supreme Leader has killed the quick-deal narrative, locking Brent above $100 for the foreseeable future. For Chinese firms going global, this is no longer a transient shock — it is a new struc…
Brent slid to $107 and WTI broke below $100 on Trump's "final stages" remark — yet the IEA's May report says commercial stocks drew a record 246 million barrels in March-April, leaving "only weeks" b…
The US 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.20% on Tuesday — its highest since 2007 — and the 10-year at 4.68% , a 16-month peak. The move is not about Fed expectations; it is the term premium reassert…
The Putin–Xi summit lands at the 25th anniversary of the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and is set to produce a joint statement plus a slate of intergovernmental agreements, with Premier Li Qian…
Friday's tape told the real story: the Trump–Xi summit's "fantastic" tariff truce calmed the worst-case, yet Brent at $109.26 and the 10-year Treasury at 4.59% drove an "everything-down-except-oil" s…
Cross-asset markets registered a classic stagflation Friday: Brent surged to USD 109.26 as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, the US 10-year yield jumped 9bp to 4.544% — its highest in a year — an…
The first sitting U.S. president to visit Beijing in nearly a decade produced more than optics: Trump and Xi formalised a three-year "strategic stability" framework with concrete deliverables on rare…
Brent crude jumped 3% to settle at $104.21/bbl on May 11 as the US-Iran ceasefire frayed and the Strait of Hormuz entered its eleventh week of partial closure. The IEA estimates 14 million barrels pe…
Trump touches down in Beijing Thursday for the first US presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. Markets are pricing his arrival as a non-event: the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,398.93 Friday …
The offshore yuan rallied to 6.79 per dollar on Friday — its strongest since February 2023 and a fourth straight session of gains — as global capital prices in a constructive Trump-Xi summit on May 1…
A four-week dollar slide and the offshore yuan's break to 6.79 — its strongest reading since February 2023 — give Chinese strategic acquirers a 4–5% YTD discount on USD-priced assets just as the Trum…
A 14-point US-Iran one-page memorandum reported by Axios on May 6 priced out 70 days of war-risk premium in a single session: WTI fell 6.9% to $95.19, Brent broke below $101, the S&P 500 closed at a …
President Trump confirmed the US-Iran truce holds despite UAE-area strikes, with Tehran's 14-point proposal still gating enrichment and a new Strait of Hormuz mechanism. Brent fell 4.0% to $109.87 an…
A four-week-old US–Iran ceasefire fractured Monday after Iranian missiles struck the United Arab Emirates and US forces sank Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped 6.0% to $114.4…
The Powell-to-Warsh handover on 15 May has crystallized the sharpest Fed regime pivot in a generation: cumulative 2026 cuts priced into Dec-2026 SOFR have collapsed from three (Sept-2025 consensus) t…
The Iran war's two-month chokehold on Hormuz has cut Chinese crude transit through the strait by 95% to 222,000 b/d, from 4.45 million b/d before the conflict, even as Brent printed a wartime high of…
The ECB held the deposit rate at 2.00% as eurozone April CPI jumped to 3.0% and Q1 GDP stalled at +0.1% — textbook stagflation. Brent briefly hit a four-year high of $126.41/bbl before settling at $1…
The Fed will hold at 3.50–3.75% today — its third consecutive pause and almost certainly Jerome Powell's final FOMC. Markets price the hold at ~100% probability . The setup is unambiguous: with Brent…
Brent crude closed Monday at $106/bbl , roughly $25 above the pre-war Q1 baseline of $81 , despite a US–Iran ceasefire now in its third week. With Hormuz traffic still running at under 10% of the pre…
Trump's Saturday cancellation of the Witkoff-Kushner Pakistan trip — paired with Baker Hughes' guidance that the Strait of Hormuz may not fully reopen until H2 2026 — has converted what equity market…
A two-month dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent to $105.33 on Friday, capping a +16% weekly surge — yet the S&P 500 ( 7,165 ) and Nasdaq ( 24,837 ) closed at fresh records, betting the…
The U.S.–Iran ceasefire was extended indefinitely on 21 April but the Strait remains effectively closed. Iran's IRGC seized two more commercial vessels mid-week; the U.S. Navy continued interdicting …
Trump extended the two-week truce ahead of its 22 April expiry at Pakistan's request, but Iran continues to seize commercial vessels while the US Navy maintains its blockade. The IEA has called the e…
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire passed its expiry Tuesday night without a permanent deal, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for a 56th day and Brent crude at $98.48 , up 3.0% on the session. Fo…
The two-week US-Iran ceasefire expires today with no successor deal, locking a $20/bbl geopolitical premium into Brent (closed yesterday at $95.42, +5.6% d/d). For Chinese exporters and SOE energy bu…
Global markets enter a 48-hour binary event. Friday's euphoria — S&P 500 at a record 7,126.06, Brent down 9% to $90.38 — priced an Iran ceasefire that unraveled on Saturday when Tehran re-closed the …
Iran's Revolutionary Guard reclosed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic on Saturday, undoing a Friday reopening that had triggered a 9.07% Brent crude plunge to $90.38. The whipsaw — driven by…
The Strait of Hormuz reopened to commercial traffic on Friday, triggering the most violent single-session unwind of geopolitical risk premium in six weeks. Brent collapsed 10.7% to $88.73, the S&P 50…
The US–Iran truce expires around April 22, yet the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,041.28 on April 16, the Nasdaq ran its 12th straight session of gains — the longest streak since 2009 — and Brent settl…
Brent crude tumbled to $94.79/bbl as Washington signalled fresh negotiations with Tehran, retracing half the war-risk premium in 72 hours. For Chinese refiners and downstream chemicals — the world's …
A US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, ordered after weekend talks in Islamabad collapsed, pushed Brent back to $101.82/bbl (+6.95%) and WTI above $105 (+9.3% intraday). US equities rallied anyw…
Lead
Iran's reported plan to levy a $1-per-barrel crypto toll on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with Trump's Friday ultimatum, has re-priced the Middle East risk premium into every Chine…
The bottom line: A Saturday US–Iran negotiation round in Islamabad has knocked Brent down more than 10% on the week to 6.51, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. For Chinese and Asia-…
Brent surges past $112 on renewed supply fears while gold drops 2.7% on hawkish dollar; mid-April inflection point will determine whether $130+ oil becomes the new baseline
Gold is experiencing a paradox: the sharpest correction since early 2023 is occurring precisely when the structural case for gold is strongest. The 17% drawdown from the all-time high of $5,589 (January 28, 2026) to $4,660 (March 20) is being driven by three cyclical forces — a stronger dollar from the oil shock, a hawkish Fed pivot from two expected cuts to one, and forced liquidation of leveraged long positions. None of these forces invalidate the decade-long structural bid from central bank de-dollarisation...
The US dollar remains the world's dominant reserve, trade, and transaction currency — but the structural foundations that underpin that dominance are eroding along multiple simultaneous vectors. The dollar's share of global central bank reserves has declined from 71% in 2000 to approximately 57% by Q3 2025, a 14 percentage-point decline that accelerated after the 2022 freezing of Russia's dollar-denominated assets. Yet in absolute terms, dollar reserves have grown — the decline is relative, driven by...
Brent crude plunged 11.3% to $87.80 on March 10 after President Trump signaled the Iran conflict would end "very soon," reversing a 40% surge that had pushed prices above $110 just 48 hours earlier. …
The S&P 500 fell to 6,740.02 — its lowest close of 2026 — as a toxic combination of surging oil prices and deteriorating US labour data crystallised stagflation fears. The Dow dropped to 47,501.55, t…
The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to its highest level in three months on March 3 as safe-haven flows intensified following Iran's retaliatory missile barrage. The S&P 500 fell 0.94% to 6,816.63, the …
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